Alexei Popyrin vs Nicolas Jarry · Match odds & ELO prediction
Geneva • Clay • May 18, 2025 • 10:10 AM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Alexei Popyrin
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alexei Popyrin
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,023 points across 40 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,023 points across 40 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 50% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.4 | 61% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 61% | 77% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Nicolas Jarry
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,464 points across 31 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,464 points across 31 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.1 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.1 | 75% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 64% | 82% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alexei Popyrin and Nicolas Jarry are set to meet at the Geneva on May 18, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Popyrin enters with a 9–6 record on clay courts in 2025, while Jarry has posted a 5–12 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Popyrin entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.