Aryna Sabalenka vs Marta Kostyuk · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 12, 2025 • 6:45 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
65%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.3 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.3 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 96% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Marta Kostyuk
80% · 4–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,484 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,484 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 69% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.4 | 68% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.9 | 72% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 47% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Marta Kostyuk are set to meet at the Rome on May 12, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 17–3 record on clay courts in 2025, while Kostyuk has posted a 6–3 mark on clay courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 5–0 over Kostyuk, including a win in their most recent meeting.