Alexander Bublik vs Casper Ruud · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 10, 2025 • 11:45 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Casper Ruud
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alexander Bublik
100% · 4–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,368 points across 74 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,368 points across 74 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 92% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.2 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.1 | 82% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 61% | 77% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Casper Ruud
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,050 points across 59 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,050 points across 59 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 77% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 65% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.7 | 78% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 82% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alexander Bublik and Casper Ruud are set to meet at the Rome on May 10, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Bublik enters with a 23–6 record on clay courts in 2025, while Ruud has posted a 14–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Bublik, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Ruud leads 5–1 over Bublik, including a win in their most recent meeting.