Aryna Sabalenka vs Anastasia Potapova · Match odds & ELO prediction
Rome • Clay • May 9, 2025 • 9:10 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
64%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.3 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 84% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.9 | 95% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Anastasia Potapova
50% · 2–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
47%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,158 points across 42 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,158 points across 42 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.4 | 49% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.9 | 44% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.4 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 80% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Anastasia Potapova are set to meet at the Rome on May 9, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 17–3 record on clay courts in 2025, while Potapova has posted a 6–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Potapova entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 3–0 over Potapova, including a win in their most recent meeting.