Jack Draper vs Lorenzo Musetti · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • May 2, 2025 • 6:10 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Jack Draper
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jack Draper
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,581 points across 39 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,581 points across 39 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 93% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.0 | 92% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.8 | 58% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 79% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Lorenzo Musetti
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,033 points across 69 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,033 points across 69 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.8 | 83% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.9 | 41% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 79% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jack Draper and Lorenzo Musetti are set to meet at the Madrid on May 2, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Draper enters with a 12–4 record on clay courts in 2025, while Musetti has posted a 19–4 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Musetti entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Draper leads 4–0 over Musetti, including a win in their most recent meeting.