Aryna Sabalenka vs Elina Svitolina · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • May 1, 2025 • 8:00 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
64%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.3 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 84% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.9 | 95% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elina Svitolina
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,858 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,858 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 86% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 89% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.7 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 55% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Elina Svitolina are set to meet at the Madrid on May 1, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 17–3 record on clay courts in 2025, while Svitolina has posted a 16–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Svitolina entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 4–0 over Svitolina, including a win in their most recent meeting.