Madison Keys vs Iga Swiatek · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 30, 2025 • 11:10 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Iga Swiatek
Key insights
Player performance profile
Madison Keys
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,502 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,502 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.1 | 88% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.5 | 51% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.3 | 80% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 74% | 89% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Iga Swiatek
60% · 3–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,101 points across 81 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,101 points across 81 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.8 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.2 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.5 | 81% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 87% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Madison Keys and Iga Swiatek are set to meet at the Madrid on April 30, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Keys enters with a 9–4 record on clay courts in 2025, while Swiatek has posted a 11–4 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Swiatek entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Swiatek leads 5–2 over Keys, including a win in their most recent meeting.