Grigor Dimitrov vs Nicolas Jarry · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 26, 2025 • 3:25 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Grigor Dimitrov
Key insights
Player performance profile
Grigor Dimitrov
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,928 points across 26 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,928 points across 26 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.9 | 84% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 66% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +6.3 | 92% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 75% | 97% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Nicolas Jarry
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,464 points across 31 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,464 points across 31 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.1 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.1 | 77% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Grigor Dimitrov and Nicolas Jarry are set to meet at the Madrid on April 26, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Dimitrov enters with a 5–4 record on clay courts in 2025, while Jarry has posted a 5–12 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Dimitrov entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Dimitrov leads 3–1 over Jarry, including a win in their most recent meeting.