Kei Nishikori vs Denis Shapovalov · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 26, 2025 • 9:10 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Denis Shapovalov
Key insights
Player performance profile
Kei Nishikori
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,582 points across 16 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~2,582 points across 16 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.9 | 22% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 64% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.8 | 62% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 53% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Denis Shapovalov
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,789 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,789 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.0 | 37% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.0 | 84% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.7 | 84% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Kei Nishikori and Denis Shapovalov are set to meet at the Madrid on April 26, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Nishikori enters with a 3–3 record on clay courts in 2025, while Shapovalov has posted a 2–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Shapovalov entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 1 wins.