Katie Boulter vs Jasmine Paolini · Match odds & ELO prediction
Madrid • Clay • Apr 25, 2025 • 9:10 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jasmine Paolini
Key insights
Player performance profile
Katie Boulter
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
40%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,736 points across 39 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,736 points across 39 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 26% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 35% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.8 | 29% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 40% | 28% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jasmine Paolini
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
47%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,186 points across 67 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,186 points across 67 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.1 | 63% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 79% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.8 | 76% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 64% | 79% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Katie Boulter and Jasmine Paolini are set to meet at the Madrid on April 25, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Boulter enters with a 7–3 record on clay courts in 2025, while Paolini has posted a 13–3 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Paolini entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Paolini leads 3–1 over Boulter, including a win in their most recent meeting.