Aryna Sabalenka vs Jelena Ostapenko · Match odds & ELO prediction
Stuttgart • Clay • Apr 21, 2025 • 11:05 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jelena Ostapenko
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
64%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.3 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 84% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.9 | 95% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jelena Ostapenko
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,176 points across 36 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,176 points across 36 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.7 | 17% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 74% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -6.0 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 27% | 12% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Jelena Ostapenko are set to meet at the Stuttgart on April 21, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 17–3 record on clay courts in 2025, while Ostapenko has posted a 9–4 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Ostapenko entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 3–1 over Ostapenko.