Jessica Pegula vs Sofia Kenin · Match odds & ELO prediction
Charleston • Clay • Apr 6, 2025 • 6:40 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.9 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 69% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Sofia Kenin
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,312 points across 58 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,312 points across 58 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 78% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.8 | 5% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.0 | 67% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 53% | 56% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and Sofia Kenin are set to meet at the Charleston on April 6, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 11–5 record on clay courts in 2025, while Kenin has posted a 9–5 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Pegula entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 3–1 over Kenin, including a win in their most recent meeting.