Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Brandon Nakashima · Match odds & ELO prediction
Monte Carlo • Clay • Apr 8, 2025 • 11:15 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Roberto Bautista-Agut
Key insights
Player performance profile
Roberto Bautista-Agut
36% · 4–7 on hard
29% · 2–5 on clay
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,715 points across 42 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,715 points across 42 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 22% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.9 | 48% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.0 | 23% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 39% | 21% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Brandon Nakashima
80% · 4–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,614 points across 72 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,614 points across 72 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 91% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.3 | 21% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.3 | 35% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 51% | 53% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Roberto Bautista-Agut and Brandon Nakashima are set to meet at the Monte Carlo on April 8, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Bautista-Agut enters with a 6–8 record on clay courts in 2025, while Nakashima has posted a 6–8 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Nakashima, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Bautista-Agut leads 2–1 over Nakashima.