Jessica Pegula vs Danielle Collins · Match odds & ELO prediction
Charleston • Clay • Apr 4, 2025 • 3:10 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jessica Pegula
83% · 19–4 on hard
86% · 6–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,589 points across 93 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.4 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.6 | 72% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.3 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 75% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Danielle Collins
43% · 6–8 on hard
64% · 7–4 on clay
50% · 2–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,971 points across 28 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,971 points across 28 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 77% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 33% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.8 | 56% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 43% | 30% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jessica Pegula and Danielle Collins are set to meet at the Charleston on April 4, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Pegula enters with a 11–5 record on clay courts in 2025, while Collins has posted a 7–4 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Pegula entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 4–0 over Collins, including a win in their most recent meeting.