Alex De Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 25, 2025 • 10:40 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Matteo Berrettini
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,447 points across 97 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,447 points across 97 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.2 | 72% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.9 | 30% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 47% | 37% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Matteo Berrettini
60% · 3–2 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,761 points across 45 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,761 points across 45 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.3 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.3 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.6 | 63% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 49% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alex De Minaur and Matteo Berrettini are set to meet at the Miami on March 25, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Minaur enters with a 41–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Berrettini has posted a 15–13 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Minaur entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Berrettini leads 3–2 over Minaur.