Alex De Minaur vs Matteo Berrettini · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 25, 2025 • 10:40 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Matteo Berrettini
Key insights
Player performance profile
Alex De Minaur
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
46%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,503 points across 91 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,503 points across 91 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.6 | 77% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.4 | 97% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -2.4 | 28% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 48% | 43% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Matteo Berrettini
54% · 15–13 on hard
57% · 4–3 on clay
0% · 0–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,666 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~6,666 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 97% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.2 | 10% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.5 | 61% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 53% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Alex De Minaur and Matteo Berrettini are set to meet at the Miami on March 25, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Minaur enters with a 41–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Berrettini has posted a 15–13 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Minaur entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Berrettini leads 3–2 over Minaur.