Emma Raducanu vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 27, 2025 • 1:00 AM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Emma Raducanu
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,966 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,966 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 61% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.7 | 73% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.8 | 84% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 68% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.9 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 69% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Emma Raducanu and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the Miami on March 27, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Raducanu enters with a 17–15 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Raducanu entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 3–1 over Raducanu, including a win in their most recent meeting.