Lorenzo Musetti vs Novak Djokovic · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 25, 2025 • 10:35 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Novak Djokovic
Key insights
Player performance profile
Lorenzo Musetti
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,033 points across 69 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,033 points across 69 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.8 | 83% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.1 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.9 | 41% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 62% | 79% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Novak Djokovic
78% · 25–7 on hard
75% · 9–3 on clay
83% · 5–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,813 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,813 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 6.1 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.8 | 90% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.9 | 64% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 64% | 85% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Lorenzo Musetti and Novak Djokovic are set to meet at the Miami on March 25, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Musetti enters with a 26–17 record on hard courts in 2025, while Djokovic has posted a 25–7 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Djokovic, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Djokovic leads 8–1 over Musetti, including a win in their most recent meeting.