Marta Kostyuk vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 24, 2025 • 8:40 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Marta Kostyuk
80% · 4–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,484 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,484 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 68% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.4 | 69% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.9 | 71% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 45% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,097 points across 75 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,097 points across 75 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 93% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 70% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 59% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 71% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Marta Kostyuk and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the Miami on March 24, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Kostyuk enters with a 19–13 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Kostyuk entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 4–2 over Kostyuk.