Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 24, 2025 • 2:20 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Francisco Cerundolo
Key insights
Player performance profile
Francisco Cerundolo
59% · 16–11 on hard
66% · 21–11 on clay
0% · 0–2 on grass
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,734 points across 62 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,734 points across 62 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.1 | 21% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.4 | 36% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 40% | 25% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Tommy Paul
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,895 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,895 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 73% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 91% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.4 | 53% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 47% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Francisco Cerundolo and Tommy Paul are set to meet at the Miami on March 24, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Cerundolo enters with a 16–11 record on hard courts in 2025, while Paul has posted a 16–7 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Cerundolo leads 5–2 over Paul, including a win in their most recent meeting.