Anna Kalinskaya vs Jessica Pegula · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 23, 2025 • 8:05 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Jessica Pegula
Key insights
Player performance profile
Anna Kalinskaya
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,093 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,093 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 2.0 | 80% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.7 | 28% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.3 | 48% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 45% | 39% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Jessica Pegula
75% · 3–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
59%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,919 points across 81 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.9 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.5 | 69% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +0.3 | 52% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Anna Kalinskaya and Jessica Pegula are set to meet at the Miami on March 23, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Kalinskaya enters with a 19–15 record on hard courts in 2025, while Pegula has posted a 37–14 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Pegula leads 4–1 over Kalinskaya, including a win in their most recent meeting.