Caroline Garcia vs Iga Swiatek · Match odds & ELO prediction
Miami • Hard • Mar 21, 2025 • 4:10 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Iga Swiatek
Key insights
Player performance profile
Caroline Garcia
33% · 4–8 on hard
0% · 0–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
42%
9 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,594 points across 12 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~1,594 points across 12 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.7 | 33% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.7 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -11.1 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | Insufficient data | — | — |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Iga Swiatek
60% · 3–2 on hard
Games won (last 10)
57%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,101 points across 81 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,101 points across 81 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.8 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.2 | 96% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.5 | 81% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 71% | 87% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Caroline Garcia and Iga Swiatek are set to meet at the Miami on March 21, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Garcia enters with a 4–8 record on hard courts in 2025, while Swiatek has posted a 41–12 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Swiatek entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Swiatek leads 6–1 over Garcia, including a win in their most recent meeting.