Aryna Sabalenka vs Madison Keys · Match odds & ELO prediction
Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 15, 2025 • 1:45 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
64%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,073 points across 79 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.3 | 98% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 84% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.9 | 95% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 80% | 93% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Madison Keys
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
51%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,502 points across 56 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,502 points across 56 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.1 | 88% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.5 | 51% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.3 | 80% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 74% | 89% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Madison Keys are set to meet at the Indian Wells on March 15, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 39–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Keys has posted a 24–8 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 5–2 over Keys, including a win in their most recent meeting.