Grigor Dimitrov vs Carlos Alcaraz · Match odds & ELO prediction
Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 13, 2025 • 1:15 AM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Grigor Dimitrov
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,510 points across 23 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,510 points across 23 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.3 | 88% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.4 | 75% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.3 | 93% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 98% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.4 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 84% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Grigor Dimitrov and Carlos Alcaraz are set to meet at the Indian Wells on March 13, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Dimitrov enters with a 10–6 record on hard courts in 2025, while Alcaraz has posted a 38–7 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 4–2 over Dimitrov, including a win in their most recent meeting.