Andrey Rublev vs Matteo Arnaldi · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 8, 2025 • 8:50 PM
Final score
0 - 2
Winner Matteo Arnaldi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Andrey Rublev
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
56%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,188 points across 62 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,188 points across 62 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.2 | 87% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.6 | 58% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.9 | 13% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 36% | 21% | Vulnerable |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Matteo Arnaldi
100% · 1–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
43%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,415 points across 50 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,415 points across 50 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.6 | 26% | Shaky |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.6 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.4 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 65% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Andrey Rublev and Matteo Arnaldi are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 8, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Rublev enters with a 22–17 record on hard courts in 2025, while Arnaldi has posted a 16–18 mark on hard courts this season. Based on Elo ratings, this projects as a tight matchup with neither player holding more than a slight statistical edge. In their head-to-head history, Rublev leads 3–2 over Arnaldi, including a win in their most recent meeting.