Jacob Fearnley vs Joao Fonseca · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 6, 2025 • 7:10 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Joao Fonseca
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jacob Fearnley
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,051 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,051 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 70% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +4.8 | 86% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 67% | 88% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Joao Fonseca
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,151 points across 49 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,151 points across 49 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.5 | 88% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.5 | 60% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.8 | 19% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 63% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jacob Fearnley and Joao Fonseca are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 6, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Fearnley enters with a 19–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Fonseca has posted a 26–8 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Fearnley entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Fonseca leads 3–0 over Fearnley, including a win in their most recent meeting.