Jacob Fearnley vs Joao Fonseca · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 6, 2025 • 7:10 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Joao Fonseca
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jacob Fearnley
29% · 4–10 on hard
100% · 2–0 on clay
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,641 points across 52 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,641 points across 52 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.1 | 22% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -0.9 | 71% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.5 | 89% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 61% | 77% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Joao Fonseca
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,477 points across 64 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~10,477 points across 64 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.8 | 92% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 59% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -4.2 | 14% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 62% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jacob Fearnley and Joao Fonseca are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 6, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Fearnley enters with a 19–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Fonseca has posted a 26–8 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Fonseca entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Fonseca leads 3–0 over Fearnley, including a win in their most recent meeting.