Jacob Fearnley vs Joao Fonseca · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Indian Wells • Hard • Mar 6, 2025 • 7:10 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Joao Fonseca
Key insights
Player performance profile
Jacob Fearnley
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
47%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,167 points across 49 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,167 points across 49 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 21% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.0 | 71% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.2 | 88% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 69% | 91% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Joao Fonseca
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,411 points across 58 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,411 points across 58 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.6 | 90% | Strong |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 61% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -3.8 | 16% | Vulnerable |
Tiebreak win % | 56% | 65% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Jacob Fearnley and Joao Fonseca are set to meet at the ATP Indian Wells on March 6, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Fearnley enters with a 19–16 record on hard courts in 2025, while Fonseca has posted a 26–8 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Fonseca, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Fonseca leads 3–0 over Fearnley, including a win in their most recent meeting.