Sebastian Baez vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Match odds & ELO prediction
Santiago • Clay • Mar 1, 2025 • 11:25 PM
Final score
2 - 1
Winner Sebastian Baez
Key insights
Player performance profile
Sebastian Baez
71% · 10–4 on hard
50% · 7–7 on clay
Games won (last 10)
45%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,924 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 3% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.5 | 95% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.8 | 73% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 44% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
29% · 2–5 on hard
67% · 12–6 on clay
Games won (last 10)
49%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,347 points across 60 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~9,347 points across 60 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.2 | 4% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 60% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.2 | 87% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 73% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Sebastian Baez and Camilo Ugo Carabelli are set to meet at the Santiago on March 1, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Baez enters with a 17–14 record on clay courts in 2025, while Carabelli has posted a 27–14 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Carabelli, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Baez leads 6–1 over Carabelli, including a win in their most recent meeting.