Nicolas Jarry vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli · Match odds & ELO prediction
ATP Santiago • Clay • Feb 25, 2025 • 7:05 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Key insights
Player performance profile
Nicolas Jarry
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
54%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,464 points across 31 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~5,464 points across 31 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.6 | 95% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.1 | 12% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.1 | 77% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 70% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
53%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,465 points across 48 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,465 points across 48 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -3.7 | 2% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.2 | 65% | Solid |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +5.1 | 87% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 60% | 72% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Nicolas Jarry and Camilo Ugo Carabelli are set to meet at the ATP Santiago on February 25, 2025 in a clay-court singles match. Jarry enters with a 5–12 record on clay courts in 2025, while Carabelli has posted a 27–14 mark on clay courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Carabelli, but the gap is not overwhelming. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 2 wins.