Carlos Alcaraz vs Marin Cilic · Match odds & ELO prediction
Doha • Hard • Feb 17, 2025 • 3:35 PM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Carlos Alcaraz
Key insights
Player performance profile
Carlos Alcaraz
84% · 38–7 on hard
96% · 22–1 on clay
92% · 11–1 on grass
Games won (last 10)
52%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~12,355 points across 76 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 4.5 | 94% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.7 | 99% | Elite |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +7.4 | 94% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 84% | 99% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Marin Cilic
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
55%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,807 points across 25 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~3,807 points across 25 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.2 | 58% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.0 | 11% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -1.8 | 32% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 50% | 50% | Shaky |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Carlos Alcaraz and Marin Cilic are set to meet at the Doha on February 17, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Alcaraz enters with a 38–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Cilic has posted a 9–9 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Cilic entering this matchup. In their head-to-head history, Alcaraz leads 4–0 over Cilic, including a win in their most recent meeting.