Aryna Sabalenka vs Paula Badosa · Match odds & ELO prediction
WTA Australian Open • Hard • Jan 23, 2025 • 8:45 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Aryna Sabalenka
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
100% · 5–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
65%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~11,769 points across 84 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.5 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 1.3 | 85% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +9.3 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 82% | 96% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Paula Badosa
50% · 1–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
48%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,514 points across 29 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~4,514 points across 29 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 3.5 | 91% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.0 | 24% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +1.2 | 60% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 63% | 78% | Strong |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Paula Badosa are set to meet at the WTA Australian Open on January 23, 2025 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with a 39–7 record on hard courts in 2025, while Badosa has posted a 13–8 mark on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Sabalenka, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 6–0 over Badosa, including a win in their most recent meeting.