BUILD_STAMP:fix1-no-premium-endpoint-2026-03-05
Match analytics

Denis Shapovalov vs Kei Nishikori · Match odds & ELO prediction

Hong Kong • Hard • Dec 31, 2024 • 7:45 AM

Hard

Final score

0 - 2

Winner Kei Nishikori

Key insights

Player performance profile

Denis Shapovalov

HARDSmall sample

0% · 01 on hard

Games won (last 10)

50%

10 matches tracked

Player Skillset

Based on ~7,789 points across 50 matches

Serve strengthServe strength (Player serve win % - tour average serve win %) scaled by sample size
Shaky
0.037% Pctl
Return strengthReturn strength (Player return win % - tour average return win %) scaled by sample size
Strong
-0.084% Pctl
Pressure IndexPressure Index (Break point performance - baseline point performance) with a small adjustment for tiebreak results
Strong
+4.784% Pctl
Tiebreak win %
Solid
59%70% Pctl

Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.

Kei Nishikori

HARDSmall sample

0% · 01 on hard

Games won (last 10)

52%

10 matches tracked

Player Skillset

Based on ~2,582 points across 16 matches

Serve strengthServe strength (Player serve win % - tour average serve win %) scaled by sample size
Vulnerable
-0.922% Pctl
Return strengthReturn strength (Player return win % - tour average return win %) scaled by sample size
Solid
-1.364% Pctl
Pressure IndexPressure Index (Break point performance - baseline point performance) with a small adjustment for tiebreak results
Solid
+1.862% Pctl
Tiebreak win %
Solid
50%53% Pctl

Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.

Match Overview

Denis Shapovalov and Kei Nishikori are set to meet at the Hong Kong on December 31, 2024 in a hard-court singles match. Shapovalov enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2024, while Nishikori has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings point to a clear statistical advantage for Nishikori entering this matchup. Their head-to-head is currently level, with each player having recorded 1 wins.

Both players enter with respectable recent form, as Shapovalov and Nishikori have each won three or more of their last five singles matches.
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