Matteo Arnaldi vs Alexei Popyrin · Match odds & ELO prediction
Brisbane • Hard • Dec 31, 2024 • 1:10 AM
Final score
2 - 0
Winner Matteo Arnaldi
Key insights
Player performance profile
Matteo Arnaldi
100% · 1–0 on hard
Games won (last 10)
39%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,900 points across 54 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~8,900 points across 54 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.4 | 20% | Vulnerable |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -2.6 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +3.9 | 79% | Strong |
Tiebreak win % | 57% | 68% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Alexei Popyrin
0% · 0–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
50%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,497 points across 44 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~7,497 points across 44 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 52% | Solid |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -4.4 | 9% | Vulnerable |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | -0.3 | 47% | Shaky |
Tiebreak win % | 55% | 63% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Matteo Arnaldi and Alexei Popyrin are set to meet at the Brisbane on December 31, 2024 in a hard-court singles match. Arnaldi enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2024, while Popyrin has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Arnaldi, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Arnaldi leads 3–1 over Popyrin, including a win in their most recent meeting.