Aryna Sabalenka vs Elena Rybakina · Match odds & ELO prediction
Finals - Riyadh • Hard • Nov 6, 2024 • 3:15 PM
Final score
1 - 2
Winner Elena Rybakina
Key insights
Player performance profile
Aryna Sabalenka
96% · 23–1 on hard
75% · 3–1 on clay
Games won (last 10)
60%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,385 points across 95 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~13,385 points across 95 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 5.9 | 99% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | 0.9 | 79% | Strong |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +8.5 | 96% | Elite |
Tiebreak win % | 81% | 97% | Elite |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Elena Rybakina
67% · 2–1 on hard
Games won (last 10)
61%
10 matches tracked
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,206 points across 98 matches
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Player Skillset
Based on ~14,206 points across 98 matches
| Metric | Value | Percentile | Tier |
|---|---|---|---|
Serve strengthServe strength
(Player serve win % - tour average serve win %)
scaled by sample size | 7.4 | 100% | Elite |
Return strengthReturn strength
(Player return win % - tour average return win %)
scaled by sample size | -1.3 | 34% | Shaky |
Pressure IndexPressure Index
(Break point performance - baseline point performance)
with a small adjustment for tiebreak results | +2.6 | 69% | Solid |
Tiebreak win % | 59% | 69% | Solid |
Percentiles compare against tour-level players in TennisTrove.
Match Overview
Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are set to meet at the Finals - Riyadh on November 6, 2024 in a hard-court singles match. Sabalenka enters with limited recorded results on hard courts in 2024, while Rybakina has limited recorded results on hard courts this season. Elo ratings suggest a modest statistical edge for Sabalenka, but the gap is not overwhelming. In their head-to-head history, Sabalenka leads 6–4 over Rybakina, including a win in their most recent meeting.